Business

Why Nigeria’s economy may suffer setback

Published

2 months ago

April 12, 2026

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has explained why the country’s economy may suffer a serious setback.

NESG raised the concerns during the group’s quarterly media session in Abuja, warning that Nigeria risks slipping back into weak economic growth if current reforms are reversed or abandoned.

The group also warned that such a move could undo the fragile stability achieved in recent months.

There have been calls for the federal government to either change its ongoing economic reforms or abandon them totally in the face of current economic hardships brought upon by the US-Israel war against Iran.

Speaking, the Head of Research, Joseph Ogebe, said the country’s growth outlook could weaken significantly if policy direction changes.

He said projections show that reversing key reforms could push growth down to between two and three per cent, a level associated with periods of economic strain.

Ogebe explained that although recent policy changes have started to produce results, the progress remains delicate. According to him, abandoning the reforms would likely increase fiscal pressure on government, discourage investment and worsen poverty across the country.

He noted that economic growth has picked up compared to 2023, rising to about 3.9 per cent, while inflation has dropped sharply from the high levels recorded in that year to 15.06 per cent as of February 2026. However, he said these improvements have not yet translated into meaningful changes in the daily lives of many Nigerians.

Describing the current period as decisive, Ogebe said the choices made in 2026 would shape the country’s economic direction for years to come.

“This year is critical. The decisions we take now will determine whether the gains we are seeing can be sustained and expanded,” he said.

He added that Nigeria must target stronger growth of at least six per cent to make a real impact on poverty reduction. He pointed out that current expansion is concentrated in a few sectors, including finance, ICT and oil and gas, while key job-creating sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing are yet to perform strongly.

Ogebe also warned against renewed pressure to reintroduce subsidy policies, noting that previous arrangements placed a heavy burden on government finances.

“We got to a point where borrowing was used to sustain subsidies, leaving little room for investment in infrastructure and development. That approach is not sustainable,” he said.

Also speaking, the Chief Economist and Director of Research at NESG, Olusegun Omisakin, said Nigeria is gradually stabilising after a difficult period that brought the economy close to serious disruption.

He said while some reforms have created short-term challenges, reversing them would likely bring back inefficiencies and fiscal constraints that previously limited development spending.

“If such policies are rolled back, we may return to a situation where government struggles to fund capital projects and inefficiencies take over the system again,” Omisakin said.

He stressed that reforms require strong institutions and effective implementation to deliver results, adding that the focus should be on improving governance systems rather than abandoning policy measures prematurely.

Drawing from international experience, he noted that countries such as Ghana have faced setbacks after reversing key economic policies, warning that Nigeria should avoid a similar path.

Omisakin said there are early signs of recovery, including improved access to foreign exchange and increased investor interest, but cautioned that sustaining these gains would depend on consistent policy direction.

In her contribution, the Head of Public Affairs and Public Policy Development at NESG, Seun Ojo, said long-term commitment to reforms is necessary to achieve inclusive growth.

She said discussions at the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit focused on ensuring that improvements in the broader economy translate into better productivity, stronger resilience and fairness for citizens.

According to her, priorities identified include industrial growth, infrastructure development, increased investment, social inclusion and stronger institutions. She added that coordination across government and consistent policy execution would be critical to achieving these outcomes.

Ojo also said public trust would play an important role in sustaining reforms, noting that transparency and active engagement with citizens are necessary to build confidence and support for government policies.

Related Topics:economic growth Featured h Joseph Ogebe Olusegun Omisakin

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Poverty skyrocketed under APC within 6 years- Global body

Published

2 days ago

June 10, 2026

News Diggers

By Philippine Duru

philippineobetoduru@gmail.com

08034905774

Nigeria’s economic reforms have begun to strengthen macroeconomic stability, but rising poverty and food insecurity continue to weigh heavily on millions of citizens, the International Monetary Fund has said.

In its latest assessment of Nigeria’s economy released on Tuesday, the IMF acknowledged that reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu’s administration over the past three years had improved key economic indicators and enhanced the country’s resilience.

“Strong reforms over the past three years have yielded improved macroeconomic outcomes and built resilience,” the IMF said in a statement issued after its annual review of Nigeria’s economy.

The Fund, however, cautioned that the benefits of the reforms had yet to translate into improved living conditions for a significant portion of the population.

“Still, conditions for many Nigerians remain difficult,” it added.

Since assuming office, President Tinubu has implemented a series of major economic reforms, including the removal of the long-standing fuel subsidy, the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, and changes to the country’s tax framework. Economists had long advocated for such measures, describing them as necessary to address structural imbalances in the economy.

Despite these efforts, the IMF reported that poverty levels have continued to rise, with about 63 per cent of Nigerians estimated to be living below the poverty line by the end of 2025.

The organisation also disclosed that more than 27 million Nigerians experienced food insecurity during the same period.

The IMF’s findings align with earlier reports by the World Bank, which stated that approximately 61 per cent of Nigerians were living in poverty, compared to 40 per cent in 2019. According to the World Bank, about three-quarters of the increase in poverty occurred before Tinubu assumed office in 2023.

The Fund further identified widespread insecurity, particularly in northern Nigeria where much of the country’s food production takes place, as a major threat to livelihoods and economic activity.

“Another risk to people and economic activity” is the persistent insecurity caused by armed groups, especially in regions critical to agricultural production, the IMF noted.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remain a concern. Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 15.7 per cent in April, marking a five-month high, according to the latest official figures.

Analysts attributed the increase partly to higher global fuel prices linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The IMF warned that although rising prices for food, fertiliser and fuel could increase government revenues due to Nigeria’s status as Africa’s largest oil producer, they could also worsen the cost-of-living crisis for vulnerable households.

The higher costs, the Fund said, could intensify inflationary pressures on poorer Nigerians, “potentially aggravating poverty and food insecurity.”

The report comes as Nigeria prepares for the next general election scheduled for January, with President Tinubu expected to seek a second term in office.

Business

Peter Obi accuses Tinubu of excessive borrowing without accountability

Published

2 days ago

June 9, 2026

News Diggers

By Philippine Duru

philippineobetoduru@gmail.com

08034905774

Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 election, has criticised President Bola Tinubu’s administration over what he described as “excessive borrowing without accountability,” alleging that Nigeria’s rising debt profile reflects imprudent governance.

In a post shared on X, Obi claimed that the Tinubu administration had increased Nigeria’s total public debt to about N200 trillion, arguing that the country had accumulated more than N100 trillion in additional debt within three years.

According to him, the pace of borrowing under the current administration contrasts sharply with the debt accumulated during the eight-year tenure of former President Muhammadu Buhari.

Obi expressed concern over what he termed the lack of transparency surrounding the utilisation of borrowed funds, saying millions of Nigerians were already burdened by the implications of the country’s growing debt obligations.

Citing figures from the Federation’s Budget Office, the former Anambra State governor stated that the Federal Government borrowed N11.89 trillion between January and September 2025, exceeding the projected borrowing target of N10.34 trillion by about N1.54 trillion.

He argued that in a responsible system, such a deviation from approved borrowing plans should trigger scrutiny and detailed explanations from the relevant authorities.

Obi further alleged that only N3.10 trillion of the borrowed funds was channelled into capital expenditure during the same period, representing 17.66 per cent of the N17.58 trillion budgeted for capital projects.

He said this left a shortfall of approximately N14.48 trillion, equivalent to 82.34 per cent of the planned capital expenditure for the period.

“The most disturbing aspect of the financial management fiasco under Bola Tinubu is that there is no explanation or information regarding how the balance was utilised or deployed,” Obi said.

He questioned whether the funds had been spent on recurrent expenditure, used for other government activities, or diverted for political purposes, insisting that Nigerians deserved a clear account of how public resources were being managed.

“The question that Nigerians are rightly asking and deserve an answer to is what happened to the balance?” he stated.

Obi maintained that accountability and transparency remained essential to restoring public confidence in government finances and reiterated his belief that a “new and productive Nigeria is possible.”

The Federal Government has repeatedly defended its borrowing strategy, maintaining that loans are being deployed to finance infrastructure projects, support economic reforms and address fiscal challenges inherited over the years.

Business

Dangote refinery hits 700,000 barrel per day

Published

4 days ago

June 8, 2026

News Diggers

By Philippine Duru

philippineobetoduru@gmail.com

08034905773

Nigeria’s drive toward energy self-sufficiency has received a major boost as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reportedly ramps up production to about 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), significantly increasing the supply of refined petroleum products to the domestic market and strengthening the country’s position in the global refining industry.
The development marks a significant milestone for the $20 billion refinery project, which has steadily increased its operational capacity since commencing production. Industry stakeholders say the higher output level is helping to ease fuel supply concerns, reduce dependence on imported petroleum products, and improve energy security in Africa’s largest economy.
Located in the Lekki Free Trade Zone in Lagos, the refinery was designed with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, making it the largest single-train refinery in the world. Recent reports indicating production levels approaching 700,000 barrels daily have fueled optimism about the facility’s ability to meet growing domestic demand while serving export markets across Africa and beyond.
The refinery’s rising output comes at a critical time when Nigeria is seeking to reduce the billions of dollars spent annually on fuel imports and conserve foreign exchange reserves. For decades, despite being one of Africa’s largest crude oil producers, Nigeria relied heavily on imported refined products due to inadequate domestic refining capacity.
Analysts say the increased production is already transforming the country’s downstream petroleum sector by ensuring a more stable supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, as well as diesel, aviation fuel, and other refined products.
“The refinery is gradually changing the dynamics of Nigeria’s fuel market,” said an energy analyst based in Lagos. “Higher production levels mean greater local availability of petroleum products, lower import dependence, and improved supply chain efficiency.”
The impact has been particularly evident in the petrol market, where increased local production has helped reduce pressure on fuel imports and improved product availability across the country. Industry operators note that the refinery’s growing output is also contributing to increased competition within the downstream sector.
Beyond the domestic market, the refinery has emerged as a significant exporter of refined products. Recent shipments of aviation fuel, diesel, and other petroleum products to Europe, Asia, and other international destinations have strengthened Nigeria’s position as a major refining hub.
The refinery’s export activities are generating valuable foreign exchange earnings and helping to improve the country’s trade balance. Energy experts believe the facility could eventually transform Nigeria from a net importer of refined petroleum products into a major exporter.
The increase in production has also created fresh opportunities for local crude oil producers. With a large domestic refining facility requiring substantial feedstock, upstream operators now have an additional market for their crude production, potentially reducing exposure to international market volatility.
Economic analysts argue that the refinery’s operations could have far-reaching implications for Nigeria’s economy. Increased local refining capacity is expected to support industrial growth, create jobs, stimulate related industries, and reduce logistics costs associated with importing refined products.
The development is also viewed as a positive signal for investors, demonstrating Nigeria’s capacity to execute large-scale industrial projects capable of attracting global attention and investment.
However, experts note that sustaining high production levels will depend on consistent crude oil supply, efficient logistics infrastructure, regulatory stability, and continued collaboration between industry stakeholders and government agencies.
The refinery’s growing role in the domestic market has coincided with efforts by authorities to deepen reforms in the oil and gas sector, improve transparency, and encourage greater private-sector participation across the petroleum value chain.
Market observers believe that as production continues to increase, consumers could benefit from improved fuel availability and potentially more stable pricing, although global crude oil prices and foreign exchange movements will continue to influence market dynamics.
For Nigeria’s broader economy, the refinery represents a strategic asset capable of strengthening energy security, reducing import dependence, supporting foreign exchange earnings, and accelerating industrial development.
With production reportedly reaching 700,000 barrels per day, the Dangote Refinery is increasingly positioning itself as a cornerstone of Nigeria’s energy transformation agenda and a major player in the global refining landscape.