Save Ogun from going the Osun way- APC chieftain advises Tinubu

By Philippine Duru

philippineobetoduru@gmail.com

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An All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftain and political commentator, Alubarika, has cautioned President Bola Ahmed Tinubu against relying solely on political assurances from Ogun State Governor, Dapo Abiodun, ahead of future elections in the state.

Speaking on X (formerly Twitter), Alubarika drew a comparison between Abiodun’s political standing in Ogun State and that of former Osun State Governor Adegboyega Oyetola, arguing that the President should prioritise verifiable grassroots structures, mobilisation capacity, and electoral realities over political claims.

According to him, “Dapo Abiodun is another Oyetola of Ogun State,” although he noted that Oyetola demonstrated relatively stronger grassroots effectiveness, as he was able to deliver his ward and local government for the APC.

Alubarika questioned whether the same could be confidently said of Abiodun, particularly in terms of the governor’s capacity to mobilise votes beyond his immediate political structure.

He maintained that the circumstances surrounding Abiodun’s emergence as governor underscored the importance of collective political structures and alliances in determining electoral outcomes in Ogun State.

The commentator specifically credited Senator Solomon Adeola, popularly known as YAYI, former Governor Ibikunle Amosun, and former Governor Gbenga Daniel for playing significant roles in the political process that culminated in Abiodun’s election.

He described the three politicians as major political actors with established structures, networks, and grassroots influence across Ogun State’s three senatorial districts.

“Their structures, influence and networks played a critical role in his emergence and eventual victory,” Alubarika stated, urging stakeholders to focus on verifiable political facts and electoral records rather than individual assertions of strength.

He argued that a sitting governor’s ability to deliver his own ward and local government should serve as a key benchmark in assessing claims of capacity to secure statewide electoral victory.

“If a sitting governor cannot convincingly deliver his own ward and Local Government for his party, then any claim about delivering an entire state should be viewed with caution,” he said.

According to him, electoral politics is ultimately determined by organisation, relationships, mobilisation, and votes, rather than rhetoric or public displays of influence.

Alubarika therefore urged President Tinubu to broaden consultations in Ogun State by engaging the three prominent political figures — YAYI, Amosun, and Gbenga Daniel — rather than relying on the assurances of a single individual.

He proposed a roundtable engagement involving the three leaders, noting that such a meeting could foster reconciliation, political alignment, and renewed unity within the APC ahead of future elections.

He further argued that the trio possess substantial political experience and grassroots networks that could significantly strengthen the party’s electoral prospects in Ogun State if their differences are resolved and their interests properly harmonised.

The APC chieftain also cautioned against political grandstanding and exaggerated claims of electoral strength, stressing that electoral success depends on broad-based organisation and genuine grassroots acceptance.

“If Tinubu desires a truly overwhelming result in Ogun State, he must bring YAYI, Amosun and Gbenga Daniel to the table and build a broad-based coalition that reflects the political reality of the state,” he said.

His comments come amid the strategic importance of Ogun State in national politics and the increasing emphasis on internal alliances, party structures, and influential political blocs ahead of future elections.

Alubarika’s position effectively calls for a political strategy in Ogun State that extends beyond the influence of the incumbent administration and incorporates the state’s major political power centres.

He maintained that electoral figures and voting patterns remain a more reliable measure of political strength than public pronouncements.

“At the end of the day, numbers do not lie, structures do not lie, and electoral results do not lie,” he said, insisting that political realities on the ground must take precedence over rhetoric.

The intervention is expected to intensify discussions within APC circles in Ogun State regarding the balance of power among the governor’s camp and other influential political blocs, as the party seeks to maintain cohesion and strengthen its electoral prospects.

For Alubarika, the message to the Presidency is clear: if the objective is to secure a decisive APC victory in Ogun State, President Tinubu must pursue a broad political accommodation that brings the state’s key stakeholders to a unified negotiating table.