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Inflation surge deepens pressure on CBN as Nigerians demand relief

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By Philippine Duru

philippineobetoduru@gmail.com

08034905874

Nigeria’s inflationary pressures intensified in April 2026, raising fresh concerns over the country’s economic stability and complicating expectations ahead of the forthcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Data from recent economic indicators revealed that inflation rose for the second consecutive month, driven largely by soaring food prices, worsening household purchasing power and heightening anxiety among millions of Nigerians already grappling with high living costs.

Of particular concern to economists and policy analysts is the resurgence of food inflation, which climbed above the headline inflation rate for the first time in eight months. The development signals deepening structural pressures in the agricultural and distribution sectors, as the prices of staple commodities continue to rise across markets nationwide.

Analysts say the persistent increase in food prices is being fueled by multiple factors, including insecurity in farming communities, transportation costs, currency volatility and supply chain disruptions. The situation has left many households spending a larger percentage of their income on basic food items.

The renewed inflation spike is also occurring against the backdrop of mounting global economic tensions, particularly fears surrounding the growing conflict involving the United States and Iran. Financial experts warn that any escalation in the crisis could disrupt global oil markets, increase energy prices and trigger additional imported inflation in Nigeria, whose economy remains heavily dependent on petroleum revenues and foreign exchange dynamics.

These domestic and international pressures are now shaping expectations ahead of the next MPC meeting, with many market observers predicting that the apex bank may retain its current monetary policy stance rather than embark on aggressive adjustments.

In recent months, the CBN has adopted a tight monetary policy framework aimed at taming inflation and stabilizing the naira through a series of interest rate hikes. While the policy has been praised by some financial experts for helping restore investor confidence, it has also triggered concerns among businesses and consumers over rising borrowing costs.

A growing number of Nigerians are now calling for interest rate cuts to ease economic hardship and stimulate economic activities. Surveys and public sentiment analyses indicate that nearly 63 percent of citizens favor a reduction in rates, believing lower borrowing costs could support businesses, improve access to credit and revive struggling sectors of the economy.

However, economists and organized private sector groups have urged the apex bank to tread carefully.

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), alongside several financial analysts, warned that premature monetary easing could worsen inflationary pressures and further weaken the naira.

According to the group, although high interest rates have slowed private sector expansion and increased financing costs, loosening monetary policy at a time of rising inflation may undermine efforts to restore macroeconomic stability.

Financial market analysts also argue that maintaining policy rates, at least in the short term, may be necessary to contain inflation expectations and sustain foreign portfolio inflows into the Nigerian economy.

Despite the differing opinions, many citizens continue to express frustration over the rising cost of living, with food, transportation and utility prices remaining beyond the reach of average households.

Economic observers believe the MPC faces one of its most delicate policy decisions in recent years — balancing inflation control with the urgent need to stimulate growth and reduce economic hardship.

As Nigerians await the outcome of the upcoming meeting, attention remains fixed on whether the CBN will maintain its cautious stance or introduce measures aimed at providing relief to consumers and businesses battling the country’s prolonged inflation crisis.

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Business

NGX sustains bullish momentum as All-Share index nears 250,000 points

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By Philippine Duru

philippineobetoduru@gmail.com

08034905774

The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) continued its impressive market rally as the All-Share Index (ASI) recently closed at approximately 249,175 points, recording modest daily gains despite mild profit-taking activities by investors.

 

The latest market performance highlights sustained investor confidence in Nigerian equities, with the local bourse maintaining one of the strongest performances among emerging and frontier markets this year.

 

Market analysts noted that although some investors moved to lock in profits after weeks of sustained gains, buying interest in key banking, industrial, telecom, and consumer goods stocks helped the market remain in positive territory.

 

The NGX has delivered exceptional year-to-date returns, with some market reports placing the overall gain at more than 60 percent, reflecting renewed optimism in the Nigerian economy and growing appetite for equities amid improving macroeconomic indicators.

 

According to capital market operators, the rally has been driven by a combination of factors including strong corporate earnings, banking sector recapitalization expectations, easing foreign exchange concerns, and increased participation from institutional investors.

 

Analysts also attributed the bullish trend to the relative attractiveness of equities compared to fixed-income instruments, especially as investors continue to seek higher returns in an inflationary environment.

 

Trading activity during the session showed a mix of bargain hunting and cautious profit-taking, with investors rotating funds across various sectors in anticipation of stronger corporate fundamentals and future dividend prospects.

 

Financial experts said the market’s resilience around the 249,000-point threshold demonstrates strong underlying momentum despite intermittent corrections triggered by profit-taking.

 

The banking sector remained one of the major drivers of market activity, supported by renewed investor positioning ahead of recapitalization exercises and expectations of stronger earnings performance from tier-one financial institutions.

 

Industrial and consumer goods stocks also contributed to market stability as investors continued to show interest in fundamentally strong companies with growth potential.

 

Market capitalization on the exchange remained elevated, reinforcing the expanding value of listed equities and the increasing wealth creation witnessed on the Nigerian bourse over recent months.

 

Investment analysts believe the market may sustain its upward trajectory if macroeconomic reforms continue to improve investor sentiment, foreign exchange stability strengthens further, and corporate earnings remain positive.

 

However, they cautioned that periods of profit-taking are expected after the market’s rapid appreciation, especially as investors rebalance portfolios and secure gains from high-performing stocks.

 

Economic observers say the strong performance of the NGX reflects improving confidence in Nigeria’s financial markets despite persistent inflationary pressures and global economic uncertainties.

 

They added that sustained reforms by fiscal and monetary authorities, alongside increased transparency and market reforms, could further deepen investor participation and support long-term growth in the capital market.

 

As the market edges closer to the historic 250,000-point mark, investors and analysts are expected to closely monitor corporate earnings releases, monetary policy developments, and foreign investor participation for signals on the next direction of the market.

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Dangote refinery draws massive investor interest ahead of IPO

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By Philippine Duru

philippineobetoduru@gmail.com

08034905774

The Dangote Refinery is witnessing strong investor confidence ahead of its planned initial public offering (IPO) scheduled for September, with reports indicating that the refinery has already attracted nearly $2 billion in private placement requests.

 

The growing interest underscores rising confidence in the refinery’s long-term profitability and strategic importance to Nigeria’s energy sector, as investors position themselves ahead of what could become one of the biggest listings in Africa’s capital market history.

 

Sources familiar with the development revealed that prominent Nigerian businessman Femi Otedola is reportedly making a $100 million investment in the refinery, further reinforcing market optimism surrounding the project.

 

Industry analysts said Otedola’s reported investment signals increasing confidence among high-net-worth investors and institutional players in the refinery’s capacity to transform Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.

 

The refinery, owned by Aliko Dangote, has continued to dominate discussions within the oil and gas industry following the commencement of refined petroleum production and gradual expansion of supply into both domestic and international markets.

 

Market observers believe the refinery’s planned IPO could significantly deepen participation in Nigeria’s capital market while opening opportunities for local and foreign investors to gain exposure to Africa’s largest single-train refinery project.

 

The development comes amid increasing efforts by the company to consolidate its position in the domestic energy market through competitive pricing strategies.

 

In a move expected to bring relief to Nigeria’s aviation sector, the refinery recently reduced the ex-depot price of Jet A1 aviation fuel to ₦1,650 per litre.

 

The price cut is expected to ease operating costs for domestic airlines, many of which have struggled with rising aviation fuel prices, foreign exchange pressures, and escalating maintenance expenses over the past year.

 

Industry stakeholders say the reduction could translate into lower airfare prices for passengers if airlines pass on part of the savings to consumers.

 

Several airline operators have repeatedly warned that high aviation fuel costs remain one of the biggest threats to the sustainability of local air transport operations in Nigeria.

 

Analysts noted that the refinery’s growing domestic supply of aviation fuel may also reduce dependence on imported products, improve product availability, and stabilize pricing across the aviation industry.

 

Economic experts further argue that increased local refining capacity could help Nigeria conserve foreign exchange, strengthen energy security, and reduce pressure on the naira by cutting petroleum import bills.

 

The Dangote Refinery, with a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is widely regarded as a transformative project capable of reshaping fuel supply dynamics not only in Nigeria but across West Africa.

 

As preparations for the September IPO gather momentum, investors and market participants are expected to closely monitor the refinery’s operational performance, pricing strategy, and expansion plans in the coming months.

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Nigeria government seeks to deepen economic diversification and reduce oil dependency

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By Philippine Duru

philippineobetoduru@gmail.com

08034905774

Nigeria’s gross external reserves have climbed to $49.49 billion, signaling renewed strength in the country’s foreign exchange position amid ongoing economic reforms and improving foreign currency inflows.

 

The latest reserve position reflects growing confidence in the Nigerian economy as authorities intensify efforts to stabilize the naira, attract foreign investments, and strengthen macroeconomic fundamentals.

 

Analysts say the increase in reserves provides the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with stronger capacity to defend the local currency, meet external obligations, and support liquidity in the foreign exchange market.

 

The rise in reserves is being linked to improved crude oil earnings, stronger remittance inflows, increased foreign portfolio investments, and policy reforms introduced by monetary and fiscal authorities over the past year.

 

Economic experts noted that the reserve growth comes at a crucial time when Nigeria is battling inflationary pressures, exchange rate volatility, and rising import costs.

 

According to market observers, a stronger reserve base enhances investor confidence and improves the country’s credit outlook, particularly as the government seeks to deepen economic diversification and reduce dependence on oil revenues.

 

The development also reflects the impact of ongoing reforms in the foreign exchange market, including efforts by the CBN to improve transparency, unify exchange rates, and clear outstanding foreign exchange obligations.

 

Financial analysts believe the improved reserve position could help moderate pressure on the naira by enabling the apex bank to intervene more effectively when necessary.

 

They also argued that higher reserves strengthen Nigeria’s ability to withstand external economic shocks, especially amid global uncertainties surrounding oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and tightening monetary conditions in major economies.

 

The reserve figure comes as the federal government continues to push reforms aimed at boosting non-oil exports, increasing domestic production, and improving fiscal revenues.

 

Industry stakeholders say sustaining the upward trajectory of external reserves will depend largely on consistent crude oil production, stable global oil prices, increased foreign direct investment inflows, and stronger export performance.

 

Meanwhile, economists have urged policymakers to complement reserve growth with measures that directly stimulate local manufacturing, infrastructure development, and employment generation to ensure broader economic stability.

 

The improvement in Nigeria’s external reserves is expected to remain a key indicator closely watched by investors, development partners, and international financial institutions assessing the country’s economic outlook in the months ahead.

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