2027: APC Chieftain Alubarika predicts Tinubu lead in four zones

By Philippine Duru

philippineobetoduru@gmail.com

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A prominent chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Alubarika, has projected that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will lead the 2027 presidential election in four of Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, while former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra State governor Peter Obi are expected to dominate the North-East and South-East respectively.

Alubarika made the projection in a post on his verified X handle, formerly Twitter, where he assessed the likely performance of the major contenders based on what he described as his political experience, grassroots engagement and understanding of Nigeria’s electoral dynamics.

According to his projection, Tinubu would secure 50 per cent of the vote in the North Central, compared with 25 per cent for Atiku, 20 per cent for Obi and five per cent for other candidates.

The North Central zone comprises Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau and the Federal Capital Territory.

In the North-East, however, Alubarika predicted an advantage for Atiku, giving the former vice president 50 per cent, against 40 per cent for Tinubu. Obi and other candidates were each projected to secure five per cent.

The North-East comprises Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe states.

In the North-West, Alubarika again placed Tinubu ahead with 50 per cent, followed by Atiku with 30 per cent, Obi with 15 per cent and other candidates with five per cent.

For the South-East, the APC chieftain predicted a strong showing for Obi, projecting him to win 50 per cent of the vote. Tinubu was placed at 35 per cent, Atiku at 10 per cent and other candidates at five per cent.

Obi, who is the presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), is expected to draw significant support from the region.

Alubarika also projected a 50 per cent share for Tinubu in the South-South, compared with 25 per cent for Obi, 20 per cent for Atiku and five per cent for other candidates.

The South-West recorded Tinubu’s highest projected performance, with Alubarika putting the incumbent president at 69 per cent. Obi was projected at 15 per cent, Atiku at 10 per cent and other candidates at six per cent.

Explaining his assessment, Alubarika said he believed the projection was about 75 per cent accurate, while acknowledging that political dynamics could change considerably before the election.

“Politics is never an exact science, and a lot can change before 2027,” he said.

He urged Nigerians and political observers to keep his prediction and compare it with the actual results after the election.

“When the votes are counted and the dust settles, come back and give me my flowers,” he wrote.

The projection is not based on an opinion poll or official electoral data but represents Alubarika’s personal assessment of the likely voting pattern ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

With the election still ahead, political alliances, party structures, candidate nominations, regional dynamics, economic conditions and other emerging issues could alter the current political calculations.