Nigeria stocks soar N1.36trn on FTSE upgrade as Dangote Refinery $5bn IPO nears

Nigeria’s capital market is witnessing a powerful resurgence, driven by two major developments: plans by Aliko Dangote to launch a record-breaking refinery IPO and a renewed wave of investor confidence following a global market upgrade.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals is preparing for what could become Africa’s largest initial public offering, targeting up to $5 billion in capital as it moves closer to listing on the Nigerian Exchange. The offering is expected to attract both local and international investors eager to tap into the continent’s largest refining project.

At the same time, Nigeria’s equities market has surged, gaining N1.36 trillion in market capitalisation within just 72 hours. The rally was triggered by FTSE Russell, which upgraded Nigeria from “Unclassified” to “Frontier Market” status—effectively restoring the country’s visibility among global investors.

The reclassification has sparked renewed buying interest from institutional players, with analysts pointing to stronger momentum ahead. According to Meristem Research, the upgrade reinforces a bullish outlook for 2026, acting as a catalyst for sustained market growth.

The NGX All-Share Index has continued its upward trajectory, recently surpassing the 200,000 basis points milestone. Market capitalisation has now climbed above N130 trillion, extending gains from a robust first quarter that saw nearly N30 trillion added to equities.

Despite a shortened trading week due to the Easter public holiday declared by the Federal Government, the market posted solid gains. The All-Share Index rose by 1.03 percent to close at 203,770.43 points, while market capitalisation increased by 1.05 percent to N131.166 trillion.

Analysts attribute the rally to a mix of improving macroeconomic conditions, including easing inflation, relative currency stability, and a 50 basis points cut in the Monetary Policy Rate. Strong corporate earnings and attractive dividend yields have also played a key role in sustaining investor interest.

Market confidence has further strengthened following improvements in foreign exchange liquidity and the clearance of a $7 billion FX backlog by the Central Bank of Nigeria—a critical factor behind the FTSE upgrade.

With Nigeria now back in the Frontier Market category, global funds tracking the index are expected to rebalance their portfolios to include Nigerian equities, prompting early inflows and speculative buying.

Investor activity has been concentrated in blue-chip stocks such as Guaranty Trust Holding Company, Zenith Bank, and First Holdco Plc. Others benefiting from the renewed interest include Seplat Energy and Dangote Cement.

Banking stocks, in particular, have seen strong accumulation as investors position ahead of dividend payments, while sustained institutional demand in oil and gas and industrial sectors continues to support market upside.

Trading activity also picked up significantly, with total turnover rising to 3.361 billion shares valued at N151.948 billion in 229,442 deals during the review week. The financial services sector dominated trading volumes, accounting for over two-thirds of total transactions.

Top traded equities included Access Holdings Plc, Wema Bank Plc, and GTCO, collectively contributing more than a third of total market activity.

In a notable development, Access Holdings listed over 1.05 billion additional shares following a partially subscribed private placement, bringing its total issued shares to more than 54.3 billion.

Analysts say market direction in the near term will be shaped by liquidity flows, dividend expectations, and portfolio rebalancing across sectors. While intermittent profit-taking may introduce volatility, sector rotation and momentum-driven trades are expected to sustain the rally.

With the Dangote Refinery IPO on the horizon and Nigeria’s renewed global market status, stakeholders believe the stage is set for a transformative period in the country’s financial markets—one that could redefine investor participation and capital formation across Africa