Politics
2027: States that Tinubu, Obi, Atiku will win, lose
A Lagos-based social media user, Oluwatobiloba, has predicted that the political dynamics that shaped Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election will change significantly ahead of the 2027 polls, with religion and ethnic considerations playing a major role in voter decisions.
In a post shared on X, the netizen argued that the voting pattern that benefited Peter Obi in parts of the country during the 2023 election would not be repeated in 2027. According to him, many voters in the South-West would not support Obi because of religious considerations, while ethnic sentiments would remain influential.
He projected that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) would maintain dominance across the six South-West states, including Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo and Ekiti, although he acknowledged that the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) could still attract some votes in the region.
The commentator also forecast strong performances for the APC in several South-South, North-Central and North-West states, while predicting that the NDC would retain influence in states such as Abia and Anambra. He suggested that a number of states, including Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Delta, Bayelsa and Plateau, would become battlegrounds between major parties.
According to his projections, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) would emerge as a strong contender in parts of the North-East, particularly Adamawa and Bauchi states, while also competing with the APC in several northern states.
Based on his calculations, Oluwatobiloba predicted that the APC would secure 25 states, while the ADC and NDC would each win six states.
The social media user concluded by expressing confidence that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would win re-election in 2027, projecting that he would carry 25 states. He further predicted that Obi would win six states, while former Vice President Atiku Abubakar would also secure six states but record a higher overall vote tally than Obi.
The projections remain the personal political opinion of the commentator and do not reflect official party positions or electoral forecasts.