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Why Nigeria’s economy may suffer setback

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The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has explained why the country’s economy may suffer a serious setback.

NESG raised the concerns during the group’s quarterly media session in Abuja, warning that Nigeria risks slipping back into weak economic growth if current reforms are reversed or abandoned.

The group also warned that such a move could undo the fragile stability achieved in recent months.

There have been calls for the federal government to either change its ongoing economic reforms or abandon them totally in the face of current economic hardships brought upon by the US-Israel war against Iran.

Speaking, the Head of Research, Joseph Ogebe, said the country’s growth outlook could weaken significantly if policy direction changes.

He said projections show that reversing key reforms could push growth down to between two and three per cent, a level associated with periods of economic strain.

Ogebe explained that although recent policy changes have started to produce results, the progress remains delicate. According to him, abandoning the reforms would likely increase fiscal pressure on government, discourage investment and worsen poverty across the country.

He noted that economic growth has picked up compared to 2023, rising to about 3.9 per cent, while inflation has dropped sharply from the high levels recorded in that year to 15.06 per cent as of February 2026. However, he said these improvements have not yet translated into meaningful changes in the daily lives of many Nigerians.

Describing the current period as decisive, Ogebe said the choices made in 2026 would shape the country’s economic direction for years to come.

“This year is critical. The decisions we take now will determine whether the gains we are seeing can be sustained and expanded,” he said.

He added that Nigeria must target stronger growth of at least six per cent to make a real impact on poverty reduction. He pointed out that current expansion is concentrated in a few sectors, including finance, ICT and oil and gas, while key job-creating sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing are yet to perform strongly.

Ogebe also warned against renewed pressure to reintroduce subsidy policies, noting that previous arrangements placed a heavy burden on government finances.

“We got to a point where borrowing was used to sustain subsidies, leaving little room for investment in infrastructure and development. That approach is not sustainable,” he said.

Also speaking, the Chief Economist and Director of Research at NESG, Olusegun Omisakin, said Nigeria is gradually stabilising after a difficult period that brought the economy close to serious disruption.

He said while some reforms have created short-term challenges, reversing them would likely bring back inefficiencies and fiscal constraints that previously limited development spending.

“If such policies are rolled back, we may return to a situation where government struggles to fund capital projects and inefficiencies take over the system again,” Omisakin said.

He stressed that reforms require strong institutions and effective implementation to deliver results, adding that the focus should be on improving governance systems rather than abandoning policy measures prematurely.

Drawing from international experience, he noted that countries such as Ghana have faced setbacks after reversing key economic policies, warning that Nigeria should avoid a similar path.

Omisakin said there are early signs of recovery, including improved access to foreign exchange and increased investor interest, but cautioned that sustaining these gains would depend on consistent policy direction.

In her contribution, the Head of Public Affairs and Public Policy Development at NESG, Seun Ojo, said long-term commitment to reforms is necessary to achieve inclusive growth.

She said discussions at the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit focused on ensuring that improvements in the broader economy translate into better productivity, stronger resilience and fairness for citizens.

According to her, priorities identified include industrial growth, infrastructure development, increased investment, social inclusion and stronger institutions. She added that coordination across government and consistent policy execution would be critical to achieving these outcomes.

Ojo also said public trust would play an important role in sustaining reforms, noting that transparency and active engagement with citizens are necessary to build confidence and support for government policies.

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₦10m monthly made from akara and bread business -Umo Eno

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Philippine Duru

philippineobetoduru@gmail.com

08034905774

 

 

 

Akwa Ibom State Governor, Umo Eno, has recounted his early experience in entrepreneurship, revealing that he once made not less than ₦10 million in a month from selling akara and bread.

Eno, who spoke while reflecting on his journey before entering public service, said the business experience played an important role in shaping his understanding of enterprise, hard work and wealth creation.

According to the governor, he started from a modest venture involving the sale of akara and bread before gradually expanding his business activities.

“I started selling akara and bread. I made not less than ₦10m in a month,” Eno said.

The governor’s account highlights the entrepreneurial path he pursued before rising through the ranks in business and eventually becoming governor of Akwa Ibom State.

Eno has frequently emphasised the importance of entrepreneurship and economic empowerment, particularly as a means of creating opportunities for young people and reducing dependence on government employment.

His recollection of the akara and bread business also underscored his view that small businesses, when properly managed and supported, can grow into significant sources of income and employment.

The governor’s comments come amid growing conversations around entrepreneurship, youth empowerment and the need to create sustainable livelihoods in Nigeria, where many young people are turning to small and medium-scale enterprises to earn a living.

Eno has continued to advocate policies and initiatives aimed at expanding economic opportunities and encouraging residents to become self-reliant through productive ventures.

His story of moving from selling akara and bread to occupying the highest political office in Akwa Ibom has also been presented as an example of how entrepreneurship, persistence and business experience can shape an individual’s journey to leadership.

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All share index gains about 0.81% as NGX rebounds

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The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) rebounded last week, with the All-Share Index (ASI) gaining about 0.81 per cent to close at 241,298.47 points, as renewed investor interest in oil and gas and banking stocks lifted market sentiment.

 

The week’s gain translated into an estimated ₦1.29 trillion increase in market capitalisation, pushing the value of listed equities to about ₦155.83 trillion.

 

With the latest appreciation, the NGX’s year-to-date return remained strong at approximately 55 per cent, underscoring the market’s substantial gains despite intermittent periods of profit-taking and volatility.

 

The recovery was largely driven by buying interest in oil and gas and banking stocks, with Seplat Energy among the notable gainers during the week.

 

Market sentiment also received a boost from developments in Nigeria’s international financial-market standing. FTSE Russell confirmed the country’s reclassification to Frontier Market status, effective September 21, 2026, a move expected to influence international investor positioning toward Nigerian equities.

 

Further support came from Moody’s decision to revise Nigeria’s outlook to positive, reinforcing expectations that ongoing economic and fiscal reforms could improve the country’s credit profile.

 

Despite the positive performance, trading activity was relatively subdued, partly reflecting the shortened trading week. Market volume declined as investors adopted a more cautious approach amid prevailing economic uncertainties and profit-taking pressures.

 

Analysts said the latest rebound highlights continued investor appetite for fundamentally strong sectors, although the sustainability of the market’s upward trajectory will depend on macroeconomic conditions, corporate earnings, foreign investor participation and policy developments.

 

As investors enter a new trading week, attention is expected to remain on the performance of banking and energy stocks, while the implications of Nigeria’s forthcoming Frontier Market reclassification could further shape sentiment and capital flows into the equities market.

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Fresh increase in petrol pump price

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By Philippine Duru

philippineobetoduru@gmail.com

08034905774

 

 

Nigerian motorists and other petrol consumers are facing renewed uncertainty over the direction of pump prices as crude oil costs, logistics expenses and growing competition between locally refined and imported petrol continue to shape the downstream petroleum market.

 

The latest concern follows another increase in the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has raised its petrol gantry price to ₦1,265 per litre.

 

The latest adjustment is the refinery’s third price increase in about eight to nine days, coming after earlier prices of between ₦1,165 and ₦1,200 per litre.

 

The repeated adjustments have triggered fresh increases in pump prices across different parts of the country. Petrol is reportedly selling at prices approaching ₦1,400 per litre in some locations, while prices around ₦1,310 per litre have been reported in Lagos and Ogun states.

 

NNPC retail stations have also adjusted their prices, with petrol reportedly selling for about ₦1,299 per litre in Abuja.

 

The latest developments have intensified concerns among motorists, transport operators, businesses and households over whether petrol prices could rise further in the coming days.

 

Dangote Refinery has attributed the recent increases to factors including the cost of crude oil purchased earlier and logistics expenses involved in moving petroleum products to different markets.

 

However, the refinery has also raised concerns over the growing volume of imported petrol entering the Nigerian market. Available industry data indicate that imported products accounted for about 43 per cent of petrol supply in recent data.

 

The development has created a fresh competitive challenge for domestic refining, particularly as local refiners seek to establish themselves as major suppliers to the Nigerian market.

 

Dangote Refinery is reportedly considering restricting sales to marketers that also import petrol, a move that could further reshape competition within the downstream sector.

 

The possibility has generated debate among industry stakeholders, with the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) calling for a review of policies affecting domestic refining and petroleum imports.

 

Stakeholders argue that while competition remains important for the market, government policies must also encourage investments in local refining and ensure that consumers are not exposed to excessive price volatility.

 

For motorists, however, the immediate concern remains the uncertainty surrounding pump prices.

 

With crude oil prices, transportation and logistics costs, refinery pricing decisions and imported petrol all influencing the market, consumers may have to brace for further adjustments as marketers respond to changing supply and cost conditions.

 

The coming days are therefore expected to provide a clearer indication of whether the latest price increases represent a temporary market adjustment or the beginning of another sustained rise in petrol prices.

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